Reports of LIV’s death were an exaggeration….. for now

What a week it’s been.

This time last Friday, Rory McIlroy was about to go round Augusta National in 65 shots and open up a six-stroke halfway lead, but by the time he walked off the fourth green on Sunday with a two-stroke deficit, it already seemed like a month had passed.

Surely Rory going back-to-back and becoming only the fourth player in Masters history to do so would dominate the golfing headlines for some time, and to be fair, it did… for two whole days.

There was an air of Mark Twain’s legendary “the report of my death was an exaggeration” quip when LIV Golf CEO Scott O’Neil’s email to league staff was shared online – an email in which he pledged that it was full steam ahead as planned for 2026 – and LIV Mexico went ahead as planned despite suggestions that the end could even be instantaneous, but while Twain went on to spend an additional 13 years on this earth, LIV’s prognosis looks a lot grimmer.

Up until now, at least, the Saudi Public Investment Fund has effectively been God as far as LIV has been concerned. It was the creator, its financial investment breathed life into it, and up until now at least, has been its life support machine.

Notable by its absence from either O’Neil’s email or from his conversation with Arlo White during LIV Mexico’s opening-round broadcast, however, was any mention of the PIF continuing its funding beyond 2026.

If, as is widely expected, the PIF withdraws its financial support from next season onwards, then what happens? Typically, when a life support machine is turned off, there’s only one outcome.

True, under O’Neil’s stewardship, additional investment has been procured, and events such as this year’s LIV South Africa were unbridled successes.

“From a business standpoint, we did almost a half a billion dollars in sponsorship last year with big brands like Rolex and HSBC, Aramco. These are global brands. I’m thinking we’re in a wonderful position,” he told White, after admitting that funding had to be raised, the closest we came to either interviewer or interviewee addressing the elephant in the room.

While I won’t attempt to dissect the “half a billion dollars” figure he referenced beyond adding that these were multi-year deals and LIV dishes out close to half a billion annually in prize money alone, I would suggest that these investments came from companies under the impression that the PIF’s commitment to the project was going to run through 2032 at least, as had been promised earlier in the year.

Maybe O’Neil is the sort of salesman who can convince an eskimo to buy ice, but he’s got his work cut out here.

Bryson DeChambeau, winner of the last two LIV events prior to Mexico, is out of contract at the end of 2026. In the wake of Brooks Koepka’s move back to the PGA Tour and Patrick Reed opting not to renew his deal and play on the DP World Tour instead, Bryson’s bargaining position was strengthened immeasurably, perhaps to the extent that he bargained too aggressively and played his own role in the PIF deciding to wash their hands of the venture if that’s what they eventually do.

And what of the players who have years left on their contracts and have yet to receive the full payments they’ve been promised?

Journalist Alan Shipnuck, talking on the Rich Eisen Show, claimed that an agent with playing clients on LIV had told him that rumours of PIF Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan claiming ‘force majeure’ – a common clause in contract law that relieves parties from liability and obligation in the event of extraordinary circumstances – because of the US-Israeli war with Iran, were circulating.

While this may be merely speculation at present, speculation can be a powerful weapon, and even the possibility that LIV is a sinking ship will have some players scrambling into lifeboats because you want to be off such a vessel before it goes under.

It’s now hard to envision DeChambeau being a LIV player next year, even if it somehow stays afloat without the PIF, and Jon Rahm, the only other LIV golfer with legitimate claims to being one of the game’s top five players, may decide that the bulk of his contract being paid and the $87 million-plus in prize money he’s accrued since moving is enough and be happy to part ways in a situation both parties may be agreeable to.

Either way, despite O’Neil’s claims to the contrary, the writing appears to be on the wall for LIV as we know it.

What comes next? A merger of sorts with the DP World Tour? A continued venture without the PIF’s backing, meaning likely reduced prize money and even less exposure? Completely ceasing to exist?

LIV arrived as the most disruptive force the professional game has seen, and that legacy is secured even if a sixth season never materialises. It offered something different and attempted to reach a new breed of golf fan, it forced innovation – and most of it improvement – from the PGA Tour, but it diluted the talent pool, meant that we only ever see all the genuine top players compete with each other four times a year, and forced the financial rewards at the top table to become headlines themselves rather than subplots to the athletic achievements that bring them about.

And for genuine fans of the sport, that was a disappointment.

I’ll leave you with another Twain quote, and one that’ll echo the sentiments of many.

“I didn’t attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it.”