Scottie Scheffler is the man to beat at this week’s US Open, and in other big news of the day, the Pope is Catholic and bears s**t in the woods.
Not since Tiger Woods in his pomp can I recall a test better suited to the leading player in the game. You’ve got to hit a high percentage of fairways, preferably be in the top third of the field in driving distance, hit your irons straight with great distance control, have a world-class short game, be one of the better putters in the game, and be able to control your emotions to ensure that the inevitable bogeys don’t turn into doubles and doubles don’t turn into triples.
And Scheffler ticks every box.
The only problem is that the odds reflect that. Again, not since Tiger in his pomp, can I recall a player with shorter odds coming into any major championship, never mind a US Open. To win €100 you need to be putting roughly €40 on, and that’s a risk that most won’t be willing to take which is probably what the bookmakers are hoping for.
But here’s the thing. Despite the fact that Scheffler seems tailor-made for Oakmont’s challenges, it’s not a foregone conclusion.
Every one of the 156 players who step onto that first tee on Thursday will miss fairways, you can safely put your house on that. It’s what happens when they miss those fairways that will prove telling.
I’ve lost count of the number of players, media members, social media influencers, and whoever else that have posted videos of balls disappearing into the thick and juicy rough. Dropping it straight down from shoulder height will almost inevitably result in the ball working its way to the very bottom, but coming in from longer distance, luck will play a significant part. And luck doesn’t always even itself out over the course of 72 holes.
Scheffler has proven himself adapt at dealing with just about everything a golf course has been able to throw at him, but unfairness and sheer bad luck have been the biggest hurdles and the ones that have given him most bother.
That’s going to apply on the greens as well. Players will hit excellent putts that will find the bottom of the cup while others, seemingly equally well hit will run five, six, even 10 feet past. Grinding over six-footers for four days straight is tough, and holing two or three more than your leading competitors could have huge ramifications come Sunday afternoon.
Scheffler might be the man presenting the most adequate resume to the interviewing panel that is Oakmont, but he has to pass the physical test as well.
Rory McIlroy might not be coming in with the sort of form that suggests major title number six is on the cards, but he’s turned his fortunes around in rapid time before and if he somehow gets comfortable with the most potent weapon in his arsenal – his driver – he’ll be able to put the ball in positions to attack flags and get close rather than hoping to leave himself treacherous 40-footers, and even on the fairways he misses, he’ll be better equipped to gouge the ball far enough forward to make saving par a distinct possibility rather than a near-impossible task.
The same goes for John Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau and several other power hitters, and then of course, there’s always the chance that an outsider has a career week. It’s been a while since it happened, but few people were picking Wyndham Clark to prevail at LA Country Club, Brian Harman to win at Royal Liverpool, or Matt Fitzpatrick to win at Brookline. Not when there was a Scheffler, a McIlroy, and a Rahm in the field anyway.
Working against Scheffler is the fact that only 13 players in the game’s history have won back-to-back majors in the same year. Jack Nicklaus only did it once, and only Brooks Koepka in 2018 and Rory McIlroy in 2014 have managed it since Tiger Woods in 2002.
One thing is for sure. Even if Scheffler finds himself three or four clear of a clubhouse leader with nine to play on Sunday, this one won’t be over.
Strap in and enjoy. This US Open could well be epic.
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