As we enter a lucrative few weeks in the golfing calendar, our resident tipster returns to ensure that it’s not just the players who will be the ones cashing in at the BMW Championship in Wentworth. By Donal ‘Doc’ Hughes, GolfCentralDaily.
Rory McIlroy / Image from Getty Images
Favourite Discussion- “On The Nose” Bet
Rory McIlroy tops the betting at 7/1 this week pursued by Tommy Fleetwood and Alex Noren. The real value in this category looks to be between Paul Casey 14/1 and Branden Grace at 16/1. Casey has nine top-20’s already this season including winning The Valspar and though he won here in 2009 hasn’t played in the event since 2013. Grace on the other hand is just coming into form after a T3 at the Byron Nelson and though he hasn’t been in the headlines, he has only been outside the top-40 once in 13 starts this year and that was at The Players where he hit 54 greens! With some better recent Wentworth form and improved putting, Grace looks to be a canny bet in this category.
Doc’s Top Five Each-Way Bets
Francesco Molinari 20/1
Fran is the Greens In Regulation king and there’s nobody better at managing his ball around the golf course; both essential around Wentworth. No surprise so to hear he has five top-9 or better finishes here in last six visits including a solo second in 2017. One caveat I have is a sodden Wentworth which makes it even longer for the Italian. Missed the cut last time out at The Players but a horse for the course this week and worth a small each way punt at 20/1.
Paul Dunne 33/1
Traditionally Shane Lowry has been the Irishman to watch out for at Wentworth but the more I see Paul Dunne mature, the more I like him on this type of layout. Paul, along with Darren Reynolds, have scored top-10’s in the Dominican Republic and Houston on the PGA Tour and in Spain and China on the European Tour already this year. And I cannot for the life of me see how the European Tour didn’t sanction GolfSixes as an official event and give the “win” to Dunne and Gavin Moynihan even though Tour Boss Keith Pelley spent that whole week on Instagram promoting it. Anyway, rant aside, after a T30 on his debut at Wentworth last year I expect Paul to be up there.
Alexander Bjork 50/1
It’s oh so quiet for Bjork in the betting this week at 50/1 given that he’s coming in off a win in China and T3 in Morocco. Tied 14th on his debut at the West Course last year and could come into a place. He’ll take a lot of money in the each-way market and is a great Draft Kings buy.
Adrian Otaegui 55/1
I was at the Belgian Knockout last week and while the format left a bit to be desired, the cream rose to the top in the end with Otaegui winning his second Matchplay style event on Tour (also Paul Lawrie Matchplay 2017). That followed a solo second in China and four more consecutive top-20 finishes on Tour and given the low-key nature of the week in Belgium, I fully expect Otaegui to be right up there on the leaderboard again this week. Missed the cut last year but is a different man this time around.
Jorge Campillo 66/1
Another Spaniard trending in the right direction is Jorge Campillo. Loving watching him perform around the world this season from Oman (T4) home to Spain (T5) on to China (T3) and in Belgium last week where he progressed to the last eight. Jorge has plenty of experience too at Wentworth but with a best of T15 two years ago, the bookies don’t think he’ll figure. I disagree.
Long Odds Glory Shots
You’ll get a lot of long odds value for guys this week in such a star-studded field. Scrolling down the odds I see three guys there at 100/1 that catch my eye. The mercurialPablo Larrazabalhad a great early season and is still playing well. He also is something of a Wentworth expert with three top-15’s in his last five visits.
Joakim Lagergrenis also way overpriced at 100/1 after winning in Sicily. The order is here on Tour and the bookies are slow to realise it.
Watch out too for Mike Lorenzo Verathis week at 100/1. No course form but playing well.