As world number one Scottie Scheffler prepares to defend the Claret Jug on Royal Birkdale’s rock-hard, rain-starved links, the longest streak of first-time Open winners in history faces its sternest test yet on what could be the firmest, fastest championship course this century.
In the previous 153 Open Championships, 91 different players have been crowned Champion Golfer of The Year.
Eight players have won it twice, nine – a group including Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus, Seve Ballesteros and Gary Player – have won three, and of the quintet to have won four, only South African Bobby Locke did so post WWII. Then we’re in even more exclusive company with the four five-time winners in James Braid, John Henry Taylor, Peter Thomson and Tom Watson, leaving Harry Vardon all alone with six titles.
To simplify the math, that means that the 91 champions are comprised of 74 players whose Open Championship success was their one and only, and we’re currently on a streak of 12 consecutive first-time winners, stretching back to Phil Mickelson at Muirfield in 2013, and including the likes of Rory McIlroy (2014), Shane Lowry (2019), Collin Morikawa (2021), Xander Schauffele (2024), and Scottie Scheffler, who defends the Claret Jug this year.
With Scheffler, McIlroy, Schauffele and Morikawa among the leading seven in the bookmakers’ betting odds, there’s a good chance that the streak – the longest in the 153-year-history – comes to an end this week.
But this is no ordinary Open Championship. Not since 2018 at Carnoustie has the links turf had an even semi-comparable brown hue, but it rained steadily during the second round that year, and even the 2006 Championship at Royal Liverpool began with thunderstorms.
On both of those occasions, a summer heatwave had the turf playing hard and fast, but this year there is no rain forecast at all, and though weather predictions are often wrong, there’s a strong chance that this time they’re spot on. This means we’ve likely got the firmest, fastest Open Championship this century to look forward to, and as a result, the most unique Open Championship this century.
Even though the Open Championship has delivered a wider array of winners than any of the other three major championships, it’s increasingly become harder for players not able to carry the ball 300 yards in the air to compete. Length is still a big advantage, even in conditions where 6-irons are going 290 yards in some cases – per Jon Rahm in his press conference – but the net is widened considerably when everybody has the ability to get the ball out 300 yards-plus with over 50 yards of ground help.
Famously, Tiger Woods won at Hoylake in ’06 using his driver only once in 72 holes, instead opting for irons off the tee to leave himself short of most fairway bunkers and trusting his superior approach play to see him rise above the rest. But he was the game’s best iron player by some distance, and anybody adopting the same ploy this week is going to have to have a career-week on approach and even then, need to hole more than their fair share of 20-foot-plus putts.
It could happen, but a measured strategy that blends aggression and conservatism is what most players will employ, and knowing when and where to put your foot on the pedal is only half the battle.
As always, it will be execution that determines the outcome. Execution, with a sprinkling of luck, because when the ball is on the ground and running as much as it will this week, you need a little of the latter.
But unlike some major tests where there is a heavy correlation between leaderboard and distance off the tee chart, we could have all sorts of players, with all sorts of skillsets, with late tee times on Sunday.
Major championship golf is, and always will be, about getting your ball in the hole in the fewest strokes. And when it’s at its best, there’s no set formula as to how it should be done.
There are many worthy candidates to extend the first-time Open winner streak, and many surprise candidates capable of muscling their way in on the action, as well as the world numbers one and two – plus supporting cast – intent on ending it.
Bring it on.
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