Ryder Cup picture taking shape as final events loom

In two week’s time, following the conclusion of the DP World Tour’s Betfred British Masters at The Belfry, the full list of automatic qualifiers will be complete for the 2025 Ryder Cup at Bethpage in New York.

On the European side, only Rory McIlroy is mathematically guaranteed to be in the top six and an automatic qualifier at this stage, while on the U.S. side, it’s only Scottie Scheffler. But we’ve got a pretty clear picture of who will be joining them in the top six.

Justin Rose’s win at the FedEx St Jude Championship saw him climb six places to number two in the European rankings, and barring a catastrophe over the coming fortnight, both he and third-ranked Tommy Fleetwood will be safely inside the automatic placings.

The same goes for J.J. Spaun and Xander Schauffele, but the other three automatic places on both sides are very much up for grabs over the final counting tournament which is the BMW Championship.

In Tyrrell Hatton – ranked fifth in the European standings – and Bryson DeChambeau – who occupies the same berth in the U.S. listing – we have players whose Ryder Cup ambitions are out of their hands as they’ll be playing in final LIV Individual event and the LIV Team Championship, neither of which offer any qualification points, yet both of whom seem virtually guaranteed to earn a captain’s pick if they should fall outside.

Robert MacIntyre and Sepp Straka are fourth and sixth respectively in Europe, while Rose’s win and six-place climb means that Shane Lowry has been pushed to seventh, with Rasmus Højgaard, Ludvig Åberg, Viktor Hovland, Matt Wallace and Matt Fitzpatrick rounding out the top 12.

A notable absentee, of course, is Jon Rahm, who ranks 22nd, but is another certainty to be on the European side. That means at least one of the aforementioned Europeans will be receiving the wrong sort of phone call from Luke Donald, with Wallace the most likely recipient.

Both Wallace and the Højgaard twins are entered into the Danish Championship and the British Masters, and were the Englishman or Nicolai Højgaard to win either of those, it could prompt a reshuffle by the time the captains’ picks are formally announced in the days following the British Masters and Tour Championship.

The same could go for Aaron Rai, who missed out on qualification for the PGA Tour’s BMW Championship by three places, but will return to DP World Tour action at The Belfry, or Thomas Detry who is in the field at Caves Valley but needs to improve his ranking by six places if he’s to play at East Lake in the Tour Championship.

So, the European team is likely to consist of McIlroy, Rahm, Rose, Fleetwood, MacIntyre, Hatton, Straka, Lowry, Åberg, Hovland, Fitzpatrick, and either Rasmus or Nicolai Højgaard, Detry, Wallace, or Rai.

It’s the U.S. team, however, where there is much more scope for chopping and changing.

Russell Henley, in fourth, won’t fall behind DeChambeau, but could be overtaken by Harris English, who lies sixth, or Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Ben Griffin, or Keegan Bradley who rank seven-through-10 respectively.

Along with Scheffler, Spaun, Schauffele, and DeChambeau, Henley, Thomas, Morikawa and English are likely to be captain’s picks regardless, leaving the final four places where the real battle will be fought.

Bradley himself, Ben Griffin, Maverick McNealy, Andrew Novak, Sam Burns, Cameron Young, and Chris Gotterup have all made stout claims for selection this season and in recent weeks in particular, while Patrick Cantlay’s past Ryder and President Cup performances give a credence to his hopes that his play has otherwise lacked.

Throw Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman and Wyndham Clark into the mix, and we’re looking at a potential 11-for-four – or 10-for-three if Bradley has already decided to play himself – shootout this week. That leaves Spieth and Clark at a distinct disadvantage because they finished outside the top 50 so won’t play on the PGA Tour again until the FedEx Fall season begins in September. Though, they could decide to play in the British Masters as a last-gasp effort to prove their worthiness.

Assuming they don’t, it’s hard to see how they could be selected, meaning we’d be looking at Bradley, Griffin, McNealy, Novak, Burns, Young, Gotterup and Cantlay for four spots.

Young, as the most recent winner of the bunch, is an ideal fit for the bomber’s paradise that Bethpage Black usually is, and I’d expect him to be picked along with Bradley. Cantlay’s T9 finish at TPC Southwind may have come at just the right time, which would leave one place for the remaining five.

Of these, Griffin is the most deserving as he’s been excellent all year, Gotterup is the most unlikely as he came to real prominence over a fortnight of links golf in Scotland and Ireland, while Burns’ close friendship with Scottie Scheffler could be enough to swing the pendulum in his direction.

There’s a lot to play for over the next 14 days, and we’re not talking about money.