Mark McGowan at Royal Portrush
It’s Saturday morning in the Media Centre at Royal Portrush, and there is an unnatural air. It’s the air of inevitability.
The early week was full of promise, full of hope, full of potential storylines, from the fairytale to the horror variety….
Come the 36-hole mark, half of those potential stories have been squashed, their protagonists departed, and many of the storytellers gone with them.
It’s not like there’s been a major shortage of talking points over the first couple of days – from an Irish perspective alone, we’ve had the Harrington opening honour, Rory banishing the first tee ghosts of 2019, Clarke playing in what’s likely to be his final Open Championship on home soil, and McKibbin playing in what is hopefully the first of many Open Championships on home soil, and of course, the Shane Lowry penalty controversy that came in late on Friday and quickly took the spotlight.
But, in the cold light of day on Saturday morning, it’s one story that’s dominating, and that one story is that Scottie Scheffler is leading the tournament and 36 inevitable holes away from becoming a four-time major winner and completing the third leg of the quest for the Career Grand Slam.
It’s not over until the final putt drops, until the Fat Lady sings, until the final whistle blows, or whatever refrain you prefer, but it’s damn close.
Holding a one shot lead over Matt Fitzpatrick – a major winner himself and he edged Scheffler on his way to that victory at Brookline – and with Brian Harman – another major winner – and Haotong Li – very much the wildcard in the leading quartet – one further adrift, it’s not like Scheffler has been in a league of his own. In fact, it wasn’t until he got a fortunate break on the 17th hole and subsequently made birdie that he held the outright advantage.
So, why are we so quick to declare this tournament over when the champion we’re crowning has trailed for 35 of his 36 holes thus far? Well, it’s because we’ve seen this script before. When Scottie Scheffler tends to hit the top of the leaderboard, Scottie Scheffler tends to win. It could be by one, two, four, eight, whatever; he wins, and it’s never really in doubt.
But thankfully, it’s never that simple. If Scheffler winning was an absolute certainty, we’d all have our final pieces written and be halfway home by now.
So, where can it go wrong for Scottie?
Well, let’s start with the stats. He’s first in Strokes Gained: Approach – which is no real surprise since he’s the best iron player in the game and, really, it’s not even close – but second in Strokes Gained: Putting – which is a bit of a surprise.
If he maintains his position in both of those skills categories, it’s hard to see him not running away with it, but all it takes is for a few putts to lip-out instead of lipping-in and it puts a different slant on the putting stats.
Added to that, his Strokes Gained: Around The Green and Strokes Gained: Off The Tee statistics are well below his normal average, meaning that it’s his incredible iron game and hot putting streak are what’s got him on top.
If he continues to miss fairways and runs into a stroke of bad luck or two, we’ve very much got a tournament on our hands, but if he starts putting himself on the short grass more regularly, then the entire field are in major trouble.
Without the sort of adverse weather than brings a round in the high 70s or even early 80s into play, it’s a tournament where you’ll need to go out and win it, not wait for everybody else to lose it.
Saturday is traditionally known as Moving Day. And if Scottie moves further clear, by tomorrow morning, the air of inevitability will have become a full-blown air of resignation. The Fat Lady is humming but hasn’t yet broke out in song. Here’s hoping she doesn’t find her voice for another 24 hours at least.
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