Move over Sheikh Mohammed, the real prince of Dubai is back in town.
Rory McIlroy is seeking a fifth Dubai Desert Classic victory – and a third in succession – but even if he’s once again crowned on Sunday evening, what does it actually mean for his hopes of finally banishing his major championship ghosts in 2025?
Well, that depends on how you look at it.
Neither the 2023 nor 2024 wins at the Emirates Course showed Rory at his free-wheeling best. Last year, he brought his ‘C-minus’ game for 36 holes, pulled out his ‘A’ material on Saturday and then reapplied the duct tape to scrape home on Sunday.
The year prior, it was seemingly sewn up on Saturday evening before he pressed a mini self-destruct button on the final hole, then had to come from behind to catch and overtake Patrick Reed of all people. I say “of all people” because Reed and McIlroy’s driving range “spat” had been the big story of the week prior to the action beginning, and Reed’s ethics once again came into question during tournament play as he said, with absolute certainty, that he could accurately identify a ball in a tree as his when TV replays showed the ball actually lodging a different tree.
Either way, both tournaments ended up with McIlroy on top, and on both occasions, he failed to back up his early success once he pitched up stateside for PGA Tour action.
What, if anything, would make it different this time?
The young Rory McIlroy was a little Jekyll and Hyde. He’d win tournaments at a canter, but also miss cuts by miles. This was also the Rory that reeled off four majors in the space of 38 months.
Nowadays, Rory wins seldom come easy, but he’s a much more regular feature on the first page of the leaderboard. That’s the tradeoff for consistency over erratic genius. Not that the genius isn’t still in there – Quail Hollow last year was a rare example of him taking charge and bludgeoning all around him – but as a much more rounded player, he’s arguably a better golfer.
Realistically though, whatever happens in Dubai this week, at Pebble Beach in a fortnight’s time, at Riviera (if it’s playable) in mid-February, or even at Sawgrass on St. Patrick’s weekend, it won’t matter much if he’s not in contention come the back nine at Augusta National.
That’s not to say he can’t lay down a marker though. With Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton, Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood, Adam Scott and of course his old friend Patrick Reed to contend with this week among other big guns, a fifth Dubai Desert Classic win won’t come easy.
By the time the PGA Championship rolls around, he’ll be 36. He’s still got plenty of major chances left, but it’s not quite the bottomless sack it appeared to be when he made completed the third leg of the career grand slam back in 2014.
It’s never been solely about the majors for Rory – you don’t win 37 other professional tournaments if it is – but each passing year cranks the major pedestal that little bit higher.
If he’s to win a major in 2025, the at least one of Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau doesn’t. Put that way, it’s a tough task, and when you add in the likes of Viktor Hovland, Brooks Koepka, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas and any number of other contenders, it’s infinitely tougher still.
Does a runaway win in Dubai change anything there? Does it send a warning shot across the bows of the others and let them know that Rory means business? What about trading blow for blow with the likes of Rahm and narrowly coming out on top?
Nothing really changes either way, and if it means a Green Jacket or at least a chance of one with nine holes to go, it doesn’t really matter. Nowadays, it’s all about the destination, not the means of getting there.
But this week is the first leg of that journey regardless.
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