Moneyball – Smash and grab reaps dividends for Taylor

When Canadian Nick Taylor rolled in a birdie putt on the first playoff hole at the 2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open, securing his second PGA Tour win in eight months, a first Presidents Cup appearance looked a foregone conclusion.

But he arrived at the Sony Open in Hawaii without a top-10 finish since, and having beaten just seven of the 59 players who completed the four rounds at last week’s The Sentry, hopes of a reversal in fortunes were in scarce supply.

With the leading duo of JJ Spaun and Stephan Jäger two shots ahead of Taylor as they stood on the 16th tee and he was on 18, the data analysts ranked his chances of victory at 0.8%. That’s 120/1 if you prefer.

But despite a lack of leaderboard presence since Phoenix, he’s making a habit of coming up clutch when a sniff of victory arises. A chip-in eagle combined with both Spaun and Jäger making a mess of their final three left the unlikely playoff pairing of Taylor and Nico Echavarria, who was one of the form players of the FedEx Cup Fall series, and back-to-back playoff birdies were enough to see Taylor secure PGA Tour win number five.

The victory brought with it another two-year extension to Taylor’s Tour membership, and a cheque for more than $1.5 million, putting him within touching distance of the $20 million mark in PGA Tour career earnings.

Echavarria’s consolation prize for runner-up was just shy of $1 million, while Jäger and Spaun were forced to share just over a million between them for finishing tied for third.