Since that infamous Sunday in 2011, Rory McIlroy has registered seven top-10 finishes at the Masters. But you can’t say he has been knocking on the door.
Late runs after disastrous starts have seen McIlroy backdoor his way into most of those top-10s. If this was GAA, he would have been a great qualifier team back in the 2000s, the pressure off as he bulldozes his way through to an All-Ireland semi-final only to be flattened again.
Ironically, none of his seven top-10s include the 2011 Masters when he blew a four shot lead on the final day and ultimately finished 15th.
When it comes to McIlroy and his yearly tag as one of the favourites heading into the Masters, is that justified? He’s proven himself to be nothing more than a solid each way bet at Augusta National.
Coming into this week’s tenth attempt at the Career Grand Slam, McIlroy’s form has not been good. A top-10 in Texas where he was solid if unspectacular is his first of the PGA Tour season so far.
In many ways McIlroy’s closing 64 to finish second to Scottie Scheffler after failing to break 70 in the first three rounds was the worst thing that could happen to him.
He choked last year in missing one of the easiest cuts to make. The field at Augusta is limited and is propped up by old timers and former champions he can outdrive with a four iron. Yet he got sucked into chasing down a score shot by Brooks Koepka that he had no right to go after.
Slow starts have proven fatal for McIlroy at Augusta National opening with rounds of 73, 75, 76, 73 and 72 in his last five Masters outings to leave himself with a mountain to climb only to do what has now become his trademark and ‘reverse into a top-10.’
In truth, last year’s 72 was not fatal, only seven shots off the early pace but by the time he teed off in his second round, Koepka was ten-under and McIlroy blew up with 77 strokes.
It’s worth noting, that the winning score was twelve-under, McIlroy had three days to get to that number. This was a choke. A bottle job.
Last year will have undoubtedly left a scar tissue. After everything he had been through in 2022, with LIV and his close calls in the majors, it seemed like the time was now. It wasn’t.
McIlroy has also been prone to costly stretches throughout his Masters career which have been because his hand has been forced by slow starts. Hence why his volatility this season is another black ball against him.
The stats show that a good start is crucial.
Since 2005, only one player – Tiger Woods in 2005 and 2019 – has been outside the top-10 after the first round and gone on to win the Masters.
Scores of 67, 65, 65, 66, 66 and 65 have all been the leading scores after round one.
McIlroy was just three shots off the pace in 2018 after an opening 69 – the last time he was under in the first round of the Masters and his lowest opening round since 2011.
The correlation? His two best and only chances to win the Masters came after good starts, where he was in the top-10.
As Scheffler ominously wins all around him, has McIlroy shown any signs of being able to compete with that level? Probably not, but the same can be said for several players who are seen as contenders.
Outside of 2018 and 2011, McIlroy has never been in contention to win the Masters.
Still, come Thursday afternoon we will all be aboard the McIlroy boat. Do we want to be on it? No. But the narrative is far too intoxicating to turn away. Rory sucks you in, even though this ship looks destined to sink again, we will be there.
Now he’s working with Butch Harmon and you dare to dream: ‘if he can just find something, if Butch can get a tune out of him, there’s nobody who knows better than Butch.’ And as he goes on a mini charge at the lifeless Valero Texas Open for another stat pad top-10, you begin to wonder if he’s playing himself into form at just the right time.
Either way we will harvest every moment of it as McIlroy opens his soul, but having soul isn’t enough at Augusta, you need mental fortitude which he has lacked during some hellish weeks around Amen Corner.
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